India IPO wave: strong listings and growing GMP premiums

Reading the GMP: Day-1 Clues from Four Indian IPOs

Wait, four Indian IPOs are lined up next week, and their grey market premiums (GMP) are painting mixed signals. PhysicsWallah, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power, Tenneco Clean Air India, and Fujiyama Power Systems each bring a different story about listing gains and investor appetite.

• PhysicsWallah: GMP about ₹6, a 5.50% premium over the ₹109 issue price. If the stock lists around the upper end, it could open near ₹115. The IPO was actively watched, with subscriptions at about 1.81x overall—QIBs at 2.70x and retail at 1.06x.
• Emmvee Photovoltaic Power: GMP is nil, hinting at a par listing near the IPO price of ₹217. The ₹2,900 crore issue was 97% subscribed, with QIBs at 1.26x, retail at 1.10x, and non-institutional investors at a smaller slice.
• Tenneco Clean Air India: This one dominates GMP, at ₹120, a ~20% premium over ₹397. It’s an OFS (offer for sale) by Tenneco Mauritius, potentially listing around ₹517. Subscriptions were extremely strong—overall about 59x, QIBs around 166x, and NII around 41x.
• Fujiyama Power Systems: GMP nil, suggesting a listing near the upper price band of ₹228. The ₹828 crore IPO opened on Nov 13 and is about 40% subscribed so far, with QIBs at 81%, retail at 28%, and NII at 10%.

Look, these GMP readings aren’t guarantees, but they hint at where buyers are willing to land on day one. Tenneco’s hefty premium reflects strong demand for its Black Box of growth (and OFS dynamics), while Emmvee’s near-par listing shows some comfort with the fundamentals at a reasonable price. PhysicsWallah and Fujiyama offer more modest immediate upside, suggesting a measured reaction from the market.

What this means for the broader market

Here’s the thing: the market remains hungry for Indian IPOs, but the quality and type of listing matter. A very high GMP often signals feverish demand for a limited set of long-term winners, especially when the business model looks scalable and the sector tailwinds are clear. Yet, the flip side is volatility on listing day if the market mood shifts or if post-list performance doesn’t live up to lofty expectations.

For investors, the key takeaway is diversification of risk. If you’re considering these four, think in terms of purpose-built allocation rather than chasing GMP alone. Tenneco’s strength could be an indicator of strong industrial demand cycles and the value of exposure to auto components and emissions-related solutions, but the OFS structure also means there’s less new capital within the company itself—watch the post-list liquidity and the company’s ability to translate demand into sustainable earnings.

Valuable context comes from broader market signals too. The IPO space isn’t isolated; it rides on macro momentum, liquidity, and the quality of post-list performance. In the near term, expect a mix of listing-day behaviour, with some names popping while others drift. The real test will be whether these listings help set a constructive tone for the Indian primary market in the months ahead.

A closer look at what investors should watch

• Listing day performance versus GMP: will the opening price align with expectations or diverge?
• Post-list earnings potential: can the business sustain growth and convert subscriptions into real profits?
• Sector momentum: how do these IPOs sit amid broader themes like tech-enabled education (PhysicsWallah) versus manufacturing and energy transitions (Emmvee, Fujiyama, Tenneco)?
• Risk management: keep allocations small and scalable; GMP is informative but not a guaranteed guide to future returns.

In short, the next week’s IPOs map to a market still eager for new issues, but selective, with careful attention to how real earnings and execution unfold after listing.